Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
