Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
